Predicting and managing migration: insights from age-structured, game-theoretic, and network models

Escalating violence in the Middle East has led to a massive exodus of migrants seeking refuge in North African camps, or trying to reach Europe or North America. The refugee crisis is expected to intensify in the coming years as safety and economic conditions worsen. Since current migration policies were not crafted to handle such large scale resettlements, receiving nations and international aid organizations are faced with challenges that are as urgent as unprecedented. These challenges include the need to ensure the ill-intentioned or opportunistic are weeded out, to facilitate the integration of newcomers, to preserve social cohesion, to avoid the creation of parallel societies, to prevent radicalization and to balance costs. By carefully representing the relevant socio-economic factors related to resettlement, adaptation and coexistence, and by using the proper quantitative tools, we propose to develop mathematical models to study migration and associated issues. Our models may help understand the interplay between individuals and communities, test the outcomes of dierent intervention strategies, and optimize resource allocation. As such, they may be useful to decision-makers in identifying the best course of action and in developing novel guidelines.

Principal Investigator

Principal Investigator

Predicting and managing migration: insights from age-structured, game-theoretic, and network models